Premier League title run-in: Who has the upper hand – Arsenal or Manchester City?
The 2022-23 Premier League title race has now entered the final stretch, with surprise package Arsenal battling it out with perennial challengers and champions Manchester City at the top of the table.
While most pre-season predictions forecasted another title tussle between Man City and Liverpool, it is Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal who have emerged as the greatest threat to City’s supremacy this season.
Indeed, the Gunners lead the way with a little over a month of the campaign to go, boasting a five-point lead over Pep Guardiola’s defending champions.
However, crucially Man City have two games in hand over an Arsenal side bidding to lift the trophy for the first time since their Invincible campaign of 2003-04.
With the two sides facing off in a blockbuster clash on Wednesday night, we are in a rare position of the title being in the hands of both teams; if either win all of their remaining games, they will win the title.
The picture will become even clearer after Wednesday’s mouth-watering midweek meeting.
REMAINING PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
April 26: Man City vs. Arsenal
April 30: Fulham vs. Man City
May 2/3: Arsenal vs. Chelsea; Man City vs. West Ham United
May 6/7: Man City vs. Leeds United; Newcastle United vs. Arsenal
May 14: Everton vs. Man City; Arsenal vs. Brighton
May 20/21: Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal; Man City vs. Chelsea
May 24: Brighton vs. Man City
May 28: Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers; Brentford vs. Man City
Average position of Arsenal’s remaining opponents: 10th
Average position of Man City’s remaining opponents: 11th
The remaining fixtures seem to favour Man City, and so Guardiola’s seasoned title-winners must be regarded as favourites to lift the trophy yet again at this stage.
City’s opponents have a lower average position than Arsenal’s, their average win prediction percentage is higher than Arsenal’s, and they picked up 19 points from the reverse fixtures of their remaining games, a repeat of which would see them claim the title.
Guardiola’s side are in better form now than they were for many of those reverse games too, and even Arteta has talked up the importance of title-winning experience for a run-in – something City have far more of than Arsenal.
There are reasons for the Gunners to remain hopeful; they only need to play six more matches, whereas Man City could have as many as double that still to play this season, including a Champions League semi-final trip to Madrid.
With talk of a treble beginning to become louder there is also no telling how effectively Man City will juggle the latter stages of all three competitions, and if they were to crash out in the Champions League semi-finals again, how they would cope with another crushing disappointment in that competition.
The picture becomes far clearer for Arsenal if they are able to win at the Etihad on Wednesday too, as then they know things are in their own hands. Victory would be no means guarantee the title, and their away trip to Newcastle looks like another very tricky test for them, but it would leave them as masters of their own fate.
Man City go into that game as favourites, though, and victory on Wednesday would push the odds much more firmly in their favour of being crowned champions of England for the fifth time in six seasons.
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